This tentative guideline to life is actually based on the title of one of the first blogs I encountered, The Skeptical Optimist. People think that there’s a contradiction between being skeptical and being an optimist, but it’s not true. I don’t think this actually goes far enough — I think it’s a good idea to be both cynical and optimistic.
Quite a long time ago, I was an avowed pessimist, and proud of it, thank you very much. I believed things were always getting worse, and virtually everyone who didn’t agree with me had an agenda of some sort.
I now believe that most people mean what they say. This isn’t because people are especially virtuous; it’s simply easier than lying. As economist Bryan Caplan puts it: “The legions of people who imagine that their opponents secretly agree with them are utterly deluded…. Sincerity is greatly overrated.” Also, on the subject of legions, there’s a legion of cognitive biases available to prop up your beliefs no matter what they are. So, people aren’t usually intentionally villainous, they’re just mostly self-interested and terribly biased.
But, none of that should get in the way of optimism. Often enough, people do the right thing, just because. Even if they didn’t, the result of the actions of greedy, myopic people can be something better than a dog-eat-dog train wreck, just because that’s the way society works.
Additionally, although you can’t change your personal circumstances, there is flexibility to your own choices which allows you to make the best of your own environment — if things are bad, make them better.